Editor's note: He Weiwen is a senior fellow at the Center for China and Globalization, CCG. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

Less than two months after their early June meeting in London, China and the US will hold a third round of trade talks in Stockholm, Sweden, scheduled to take place between July 27 and 30, 2025. This will mark a key step toward an overall China-US bilateral trade relationship framework based on equality, mutual respect and mutual benefit. It will also be of great importance for a world entangled by US President Donald Trump's unilateral global tariffs and strong economic headwinds.

Stockholm talks aim for more tangible outcomes under two basic principles

The previous two meetings in Geneva and London set two basic principles. First, a WTO rules-based trade relationship requires unilateral tariffs removed or to be removed. Second, bilateral trade relationship must be based on equality, mutual respect and mutual benefit. The Geneva talks removed the 91 percent tariffs and suspended the 24 percent "reciprocal tariffs" for 90 days. The London talks resulted in the US removing the export ban on ethane, EDA software and LEAP aviation engine, and China lift its rare earth export ban. Both sides also reached a trade agreement framework. It is highly anticipated that the Stockholm talks will result in more tangible results in this direction, further cementing the broad framework of the China-US trade agreement.

The Stockholm talks will continue to focus on the remaining tariffs. It is most likely that the 90-day pause, ending on August 12, will be dropped or further extended. China will insist on a total removal of all unilateral tariffs, including the Fentanyl tariff, which is in direct violation to WTO rules and a disruption to global supply chains.

China and US will talk on issues of concern to each other. China will demand further lifting of chip bans and the "entity list". The US will ask for further reduction of rare earth export restrictions.

Both sides will review the current situation of bilateral trade, seriously hit by the US's unilateral tariffs, discuss possible areas to ensure that the normal bilateral trade picks up from the recent lows, and will endorse trade and investment exchanges by business communities of both countries. Coordination of macroeconomic policies could also be on the agenda.

The Stockholm meeting is also likely to set in place a further dialogue mechanism, at different levels, to keep managing differences and seek possible cooperation.

Washington gains little economic advantage out of unilateral tariffs, straying from MAGA

The unilateral high tariffs on Chinese goods imposed by Washington, at 145 percent at a point, hit normal bilateral trade badly. According to China customs data, the China-US bilateral trade volume was down 10.4 percent during the first half of 2025 from over a year ago. Chinese exports to the US fell to $33.0 billion in April, and to $28.82 billion in May, only to pick up to $38.17 billion in June, still 16.3 percent lower as compared to June 2024. The export volume in June 2025 is still a far cry from the monthly average of $43.7 billion in 2024, and still further behind the monthly average of $48.5 billion in 2022, the historic high.

Likewise, US exports to China have suffered roughly the same. Its exports to China, at $11.60 billion in June 2025, stood 15.0 percent lower than the monthly average of $13.64 billion in 2024 and 21.6 percent lower than that in 2022, which was $14.80 billion. The sharp fall in China-US bilateral trade during H1 2025 did not stop China's global trade growth, with China's global exports up 5.6 percent y-o-y. America lost 1.3 percent share in China's global trade which was easily made up by ASEAN and other Asian partners. Washington has obtained no advantage out of unilateral tariffs and other restrictions on China, nor any from the rest of the world. During the first 5 months of 2025, under the global "reciprocal tariff", the US global merchandise trade deficit soared to $604.23 billion, up 34.4 percent from a year ago, thus further away from MAGA.

China-US constructive dialogue and cooperation will benefit the whole world

China has repeatedly emphasized on dialogue and cooperation in China-US bilateral relations. It is highly anticipated that both sides will work in the same direction during the upcoming Stockholm meeting, making further substantive progress toward this end.

The dates of the China-US Stockholm meeting coincide with the US deadline of "reciprocal tariff" pause and the end of a series of tariff talks. By August 1, a worldwide unilateral tariff will be imposed, bringing the world back to a pre-GATT and WTO era, thus challenging the multilateral trading system and hurting the world economy. The China-US Stockholm talks will show the world a completely different orientation: no unilateral tariff coercion, but a mechanism toward equal, mutual respect and mutual benefit trade relationship. The deliverables of the China-US Stockholm talks will prove that the right path for trade and economic growth is not a coercive tariff by only one country on others, nor a zero-sum game, but equal cooperation based on WTO rules. More countries will be encouraged to uphold the multilateral trading mechanism and free trade, partially mitigate the adverse impact of Washington's worldwide tariff wall. It can be well expected that the Stockholm talks will be constructive not only for China and the US, but also for the whole world.