The fact that officials of Russia and Ukraine were able to sit down and talk face to face has provided a rare opportunity for a political resolution to the conflict, according to experts, following direct peace talks between Moscow and Kyiv on Friday that yielded no ceasefire agreement.
The talks, the first in more than three years, took place at the Dolmabahce Palace in Türkiye's Istanbul. They came following a proposal by Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sunday to resume direct negotiations with Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had previously said he was open to a face-to-face meeting with Putin, but the Kremlin had said Putin would not attend Friday's talks.
After the two-hour talks, Russia and Ukraine agreed to a prisoner exchange involving 1,000 people from each side, and to resume talks after each side had set out its vision for a future ceasefire.
Cui Hongjian, director of the Center for European Union and Regional Development Studies at Beijing Foreign Studies University, told China Media Group (CMG) that there was a severe lack of political trust between Russia and Ukraine prior to this round of negotiations.
In particular, the two sides held significantly divergent views on the political direction and negotiating positions for resolving the Ukraine crisis, said Cui.
According to Russian diplomatic sources, Russian Presidential Aide Vladimir Medinsky expressed overall satisfaction with the meeting and confirmed that Russia is ready to continue the dialogue.
Medinsky noted that both sides will soon present their detailed views on a possible ceasefire, after which the negotiations will move forward. He also said that Ukraine proposed direct talks between the two presidents, and that Russia "took note" of the request.
Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, who led the Ukrainian delegation, told reporters that the meeting focused on three key issues: a ceasefire, the prisoner exchanges, and a potential summit between the two countries' presidents.
However, Ukrainian lawmaker Yaroslav Zheleznyak said on Friday that Istanbul negotiations yielded no results.
Sun Zhuangzhi, director of the Institute of Russian, Eastern European and Central Asian Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said the differing assessments of the negotiation outcomes by Russia and Ukraine stem primarily from their divergent priorities in the talks.
Ukraine's pessimistic and negative evaluation was driven by two factors, Sun told CMG. First, Kyiv had hoped for an immediate ceasefire and progress on key issues like territorial disputes, but Russia made no concessions this time; Second, Ukraine wants Europe to maintain pressure on Moscow, as the European Union had previously signaled that a failed negotiation could trigger new sanctions against Russia, Sun analyzed.
In contrast, Russia has taken a more positive stance, he said. For one, the talks – initiated by Moscow – were held largely on Russia's terms, preserving the format and level of the March 2022 negotiations, which marked the last direct discussions between the two sides, Sun said. Additionally, Russia's stated willingness to continue the dialogue also sends a message to the United States, especially in light of recent talks between Russian and U.S. representatives in Istanbul, he added.
Cui said Russia, Ukraine and all other relevant parties should cherish such opportunities of talks in the future.
Only through gradual and sustained negotiations can the two sides – guided by their own interests as well as mutual concerns – work with other stakeholders to develop a comprehensive solution that ultimately achieves a ceasefire, ends the war, and secures lasting peace, he said.
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