In a development that heralds a major power shift in the Caucasus region, Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan have signed a joint declaration at the White House. It commits the two nations to a long-term peace settlement after four decades of armed conflict that has left thousands dead. It also paves the way for a deepening of bilateral trade and defense ties with the U.S. that look set to significantly impact relations with Moscow.

Corridor

The deal includes an agreement over one of the previous biggest stumbling blocks to peace — the creation of a transit corridor linking Azerbaijan to its exclave of Nakhchivan through Armenian territory.

Rights to the development of the so-called Zangezur Corridor, which will include rail, energy, and fibre-optic lines, will be handed to the U.S. under a 99-year lease. In turn, private contractors operating under Armenian law will be invited to tender for projects on the 32-kilometre route.

The White House says the development will be named the "Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity" (TRIPP).

With new supply options, Azerbaijan — which has just signed a deal to sell natural gas to Ukraine — looks set to benefit further from the growing demand in Europe for alternatives to Russian gas.

Nobel Peace Prize

Jointly endorsing Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize for his role in the deal, President Aliyev said, "Peace … will open great opportunities" for Azerbaijan.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan called it a success "for our countries and for our region."

Türkiye, one of Azerbaijan's strongest international allies, has called the corridor "a very beneficial development" that could "link Europe with the depths of Asia."

Dispute

While the dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan dates back to Russia’s imperial past, the latest phase of the conflict began in the late 1980s, when the region of Nagorno-Karabakh broke away from Baku's control with the support of Armenia.

Armenia, which had traditionally seen Russia as its main defender in its largely ethnic conflict with its larger neighbour, appealed to Moscow. However, in late 2023 Nagorno-Karabakh fell after a lightning two-day offensive by Baku that saw over 100,000 ethnic Armenians flee the territory, many fearing for their lives.

Diaspora

The signing of the accord in Washington has been praised by Russia; however, the Kremlin has warned against further intervention by foreign nations in the South Caucasus region.

The deal has also been opposed by a significant number of Armenians, both within the country and in the global diaspora, who say it will complicate efforts to investigate alleged war crimes in Nagorno-Karabakh, including the treatment of prisoners of war and the destruction of cultural sites.

The White House insists the deal is still positive for Yerevan, formalizing strategic commercial relations with a Western partner in the form of Washington for the first time.